Scenario/Summary
This week you will submit both parts of the course project. You completed Part I in Week 6 and will complete Part II this week. You will submit one word document with both parts of the project. ( the project for week 6 is attached)
Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true.
In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations.
The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces; however, it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces.
Deliverables
- Choose a Data Set.
- Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm (Links to an external site.)
- In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths
- Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example you could use the National Vital Statistics Reports,
- Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009.
- Preliminary Calculations
- Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the mean, median, sample standard deviation, minimum and maximum values for each the data sets. You will have FOUR tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You will have 52 numbers for each data set).
| Summary Table for _________ |
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| Mean |
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| Median |
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| Standard Deviation |
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| Minimum |
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| Maximum |
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- Hypothesis Testing
With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate):
- Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 5000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance.
- Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.
- Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 2500 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance.
- Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.
For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to—
- Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis
- Give the value of the test statistic
- Report the P-Value
- Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)
- Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.
Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis about the Birth, Death, Marriage and Divorce data that you have been analyzing. Make sure to follow the five steps above.
Required Software
Microsoft Office: Word and Excel
Use a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.) .
Grading
This activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric.
Course Outcomes (CO): 6
Due Date: By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 7
Rubric
Course Project Rubric
Course Project Rubric
| Criteria |
Ratings |
Pts |
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Topic & Introduction
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| 4.0 pts
Proficient Student picks appropriate topic, provides a description of topic and the cites where data was found.
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3.0 pts
Above Average Student picks appropriate topic and introduces data. No citation.
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2.0 pts
Average. Student does not pick a topic that is appropriate for the project, introduces the data but does not cite source.
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1.0 pts
Needs Improvement Students provides topic without descritption and citation.
|
0.0 pts
No Effort. No topic, descritpion or citation is provided.
|
|
4.0 pts
|
|
This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Sample Data
|
| 4.0 pts
Proficient Student provides ALL 50 pieces of data.
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3.0 pts
Above Average Student provides 30-49 pieces of data.
|
2.0 pts
Average Student provides 20 – 29 pieces of data.
|
1.0 pts
Needs Improvement Student provides 1-19 pieces of data.
|
0.0 pts
No Effort. No Data was provided.
|
|
4.0 pts
|
|
This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Mean & Standard Deviation
|
| 5.0 pts
Proficient Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct with no rounding error. .
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4.0 pts
Above Average Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct but with roujnding error.
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3.0 pts
Average One Value (either mean or sample standsrd deviation) is correct but the other is not correct.
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1.0 pts
Needs Improvement Both the Mean & Sample Standard Deviation are incorrect but it was attempted.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. The mean and sample standard deviation
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5.0 pts
|
|
This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Constructing the 80%, 95%, 99% Confidence Intervals
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| 15.0 pts
Proficient Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty making sure to note the margin of error for each.
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12.0 pts
Above Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty but is missing margin of errors (or some of the margin of errors are incorrect).
|
10.0 pts
Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but there are some errors in the calculations.
|
6.0 pts
Needs Improvement Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but all of the values are incorrect. The component was attempted.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. No Confidence Intervals are provided.
|
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15.0 pts
|
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Creating a new confidence interval
|
| 7.0 pts
Proficient. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error.
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5.0 pts
Above Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error but there is rounding error.
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4.0 pts
Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly but does not highlight the margin of error.
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3.0 pts
Needs Improvement Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) but it was not done correctly.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. The student did not create a new confidence interval.
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7.0 pts
|
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Problem Analysis
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| 10.0 pts
Proficient. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for each confidence interval created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. Provides a reflection for Part I of the project.
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8.0 pts
Above Average. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides sentences for each confidence interval created explaining what the confience interval means in context of the data collected. Does NOT provide a Reflection.
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7.0 pts
Average. Student may or may not address the trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for SOME confidence intervaSl created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. A reflection Part I of the project may or may not be provided.
|
5.0 pts
Needs Improvement. Majority of the analysis is missing.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. No Problem Anaylsis is provided.
|
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10.0 pts
|
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data
|
| 5.0 pts
Proficient. Student computes all 4 Preliminary Data Values.
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4.0 pts
Above Average. Student computes all 3 Preliminary Data Values.
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3.0 pts
Average. Student computes all 2 Preliminary Data Values.
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1.0 pts
Needs Improvement. Student computes all 1 Preliminary Data Values.
|
0.0 pts
No Effort. No Preliminary Data
|
|
5.0 pts
|
|
This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing
|
| 20.0 pts
Proficient. Completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.
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16.0 pts
Above Average. Completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.
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14.0 pts
Average. Completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.
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10.0 pts
Needs Improvement: Completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed.
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20.0 pts
|
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis
|
| 10.0 pts
Proficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems.
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8.0 pts
Above Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems.
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7.0 pts
Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems.
|
5.0 pts
Needs Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem
|
0.0 pts
No Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given.
|
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10.0 pts
|
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This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test
|
| 10.0 pts
Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.
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8.0 pts
Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets correclty and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.
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7.0 pts
Average. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.
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5.0 pts
Needs Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid.
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0.0 pts
No Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test.
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10.0 pts
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Total Points: 90.0
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